Predicting 10-year risk of recurrent cardiovascular events andcardiovascular interventions in patients with established cardiovascular disease: results from UCC-SMART and REACH

نویسندگان

چکیده

AbstractBackground Existing cardiovascular risk scores for patients with established disease (CVD) estimate residual of recurrent major events (MACE). The aim the current study is to develop and externally validate a prediction model 10-year combined MACE interventions (MACE+) in CVD. Methods Data CVD from UCC-SMART cohort (N = 8421) were used development, patient data REACH Western Europe 14,528) North America 19,495) validation. Predictors selected based on existing SMART score. A Fine Gray competing risk-adjusted was developed outcome MACE+. validated all strata coronary heart (CHD), cerebrovascular (CeVD), peripheral artery (PAD). Results External calibration 2-year good, c-statistics moderate: 0.60 0.58, respectively. In at baseline good external observed CHD CeVD, however, poor seen PAD. C-statistics 0.57, CeVD 0.62 0.61, PAD 0.53 0.54 America, Conclusions can be estimated or CeVD. However, could not predicted reliably.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Cardiology

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['0167-5273', '1874-1754']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijcard.2020.09.053